Fri, Oct 29, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Buffalo Sabres 3, Atlanta Thrashers 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 214 | 04 | 19 | 01 | 328 |
| ATL | 06 | 29 | 15 | 12 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:51BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Cody McCormick · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 13:40BUFJordan LeopoldAssists: Derek Roy, Nathan Gerbe · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 9:53ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 13:33ATLAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 0:50ATLNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Anthony Stewart, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 19:52BUFDerek RoyAssists: Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 4:31ATLDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:12ATLNik Antropov: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:27ATLToby Enstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 2:27ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:45BUFDerek Roy: Holding2 min
- P2 8:27BUFRob Niedermayer: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:48BUFShaone Morrisonn: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:56BUFDrew Stafford: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:53ATLZach Bogosian: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00BUFPatrick Kaleta: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:47BUFTyler Ennis: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:32ATLAlexander Burmistrov: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:22BUFSteve Montador: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNiedermayer – Grier – Ennis6:04
xG 0.39–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hecht – Connolly – McCormick6:43
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe4:43
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Stafford9:55
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Montador14:34
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 20–3goals 2–0
- Morrisonn – Myers10:03
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Sekera – Butler12:32
xG 0.35–0.49 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Eager – Burmistrov3:24
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little2:09
xG 0.03–0.04 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Antropov – Thorburn – Eager4:46
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey8:20
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien12:23
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian12:40
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).