Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 111 | 19 | 331 |
| MTL | 09 | 116 | 016 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:10FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Shawn Matthias, Chris Higgins · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:13MTLMathieu DarcheAssists: Jeff Halpern, Benoit Pouliot · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:19FLADavid BoothGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 16:38FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Steve Reinprecht · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:51FLADmitry Kulikov: Elbowing2 min
- P1 12:36MTLMichael Cammalleri: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:15FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:19MTLJaroslav Spacek: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:25FLAJason Garrison: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:40FLAMike Weaver: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:19MTLLars Eller: Holding2 min
- P3 14:10FLAMike Weaver: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:54MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Frolik – Matthias8:26
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Reinprecht – Olesz – Booth4:11
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli7:45
xG 0.48–0.39 (56%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Stillman – Dvorak – Reasoner11:42
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Kulikov14:40
xG 0.83–0.34 (71%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison11:55
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Allen – Wideman11:14
xG 0.43–0.58 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Gomez – Gionta – Moen10:54
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Halpern – Darche – Pouliot5:42
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Plekanec – Kostitsyn11:34
xG 0.36–0.43 (45%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Pyatt – Eller9:21
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamrlik – Spacek14:12
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:33
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Gill – Gorges11:47
xG 0.35–0.60 (37%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).