Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 212 | 17 | 425 |
| OTT | 012 | 012 | 05 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32BOSDavid KrejciGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:55BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Mark Recchi, Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 18:24BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P3 9:03BOSJordan CaronAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:53BOSGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:00OTTMike Fisher: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:06BOSBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:37OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:26OTTZack Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:54BOSNathan Horton: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:53BOSDennis Seidenberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:53OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:53OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Kelly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Caron6:19
xG 0.65–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic10:45
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Wheeler – Caron2:16
xG 0.01–0.02 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand13:53
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Ference13:06
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 3–0
- Seidenberg – Stuart4:42
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid2:10
xG 0.10–0.04 (73%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin12:09
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly11:48
xG 0.32–0.33 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester2:50
xG 0.01–0.10 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno8:51
xG 0.17–0.43 (28%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Karlsson4:47
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips8:05
xG 0.26–0.24 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Carkner – Hale5:03
xG 0.02–0.03 (41%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).