Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 1, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 114 | 010 | 131 |
| PHI | 210 | 412 | 07 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Scott Hartnell, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:19PHIJeff CarterGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Andrej Meszaros · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 2:55PHIJeff CarterAssists: Darroll Powe, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 4:32PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Ville Leino · Slap, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 8:09NYIFrans NielsenUnassisted · Backhand, 0.36 xG1–4
- P2 9:21PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Mike Richards · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 15:02PHIAndreas NodlAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–6
Penalties (28)
- P1 10:59NYIJon Sim: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:16PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:06PHIDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:28NYIJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:41PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:41NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 4:49PHIKimmo Timonen: Elbowing2 min
- P2 7:45NYITrent Hunter: Boarding5 min
- P2 7:45NYITrent Hunter: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 7:45NYIRick DiPietro: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 8:09PHIChris Pronger: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:47PHIJames van Riemsdyk: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:10PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:43PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:43NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:43NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:43NYIZenon Konopka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:10PHIMike Richards: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:23NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:23NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:23NYITrevor Gillies: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:23NYITrevor Gillies: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:58NYIJon Sim: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 19:00NYIFrans Nielsen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:00NYIRick DiPietro: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 19:00PHIDaniel Brière: Cross checking5 min
- P3 19:00PHIDaniel Brière: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:00PHIDaniel Carcillo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Martin – Tavares4:52
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares2:51
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Weight – Comeau – Bailey5:00
xG 0.25–0.16 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Konopka – Comeau – Bailey2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Gervais2:23
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Mottau – Wisniewski10:57
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 6–15goals 0–2
- Eaton – Martinek12:05
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino9:15
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe8:28
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk5:59
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo6:36
xG 0.05–0.41 (10%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle10:40
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros7:51
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- O'Donnell – Carle3:06
xG 0.28–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).