Sat, Oct 30, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 114 | 17 | 331 |
| CAR | 06 | 016 | 011 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18PITPascal DupuisGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 2:15PITMax TalbotAssists: Arron Asham, Mike Rupp · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 8:10PITPascal DupuisAssists: Alex Goligoski, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:52PITTyler Kennedy: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:31CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:23PITBen Lovejoy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:05PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:18PITMark Letestu: Interference2 min
- P3 5:32PITAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:57CARJoni Pitkanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:38PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:03CARTuomo Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03PITDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:03PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Kennedy – Letestu8:13
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Adams – Comrie – Godard6:08
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:38
xG 1.49–1.59 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Asham – Rupp – Talbot5:18
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang5:15
xG 0.75–0.29 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Lovejoy7:38
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Martin – Goligoski3:41
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Jokinen – Staal9:23
xG 1.64–1.00 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Dwyer – O'Sullivan – Tlusty4:43
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Staal – Skinner2:22
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- LaRose – Tlusty – Sutter3:33
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrison – Babchuk7:50
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Corvo – Gleason15:08
xG 1.10–0.79 (58%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain11:14
xG 0.81–1.07 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).