Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 18 | 19 | 225 |
| DET | 212 | 18 | 28 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Ruslan Salei · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 18:24DETBrad StuartAssists: Johan Franzen, Nicklas Lidstrom · Tip-in, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 7:49NSHJoel WardAssists: Cody Franson, Cal O'Reilly · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 18:42DETPavel DatsyukGWGAssists: Daniel Cleary, Ruslan Salei · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 4:18DETTomas HolmstromPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 6:26DETPatrick EavesAssists: Darren Helm, Drew Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 9:39NSHKevin KleinAssists: Shea Weber, Steve Sullivan · Slap, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:49DETJohan Franzen: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:43NSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:05NSHDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:48DETDoug Janik: Holding2 min
- P2 10:07DETPavel Datsyuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:53NSHNick Spaling: Holding2 min
- P2 15:56NSHDavid Legwand: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:29NSHJ-P Dumont: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:31DETRuslan Salei: Interference2 min
- P3 17:30DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Modano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Ward – Wilson3:03
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dumont – Erat – Spaling2:16
xG 0.03–0.03 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Sullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist5:05
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Smithson – Kostitsyn – Klasen2:04
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Sulzer7:38
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Klein – O'Brien10:12
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Weber – Franson2:42
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen8:30
xG 1.18–0.10 (92%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm6:55
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Modano – Cleary – Abdelkader9:53
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg9:31
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Stuart11:23
xG 1.34–0.44 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Lidstrom – Salei2:11
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Salei – Kindl10:59
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).