Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Atlanta Thrashers 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 39 | 07 | 08 | 04 | 0 | 328 |
| STL | 110 | 07 | 214 | 04 | 2 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 11:58STLJay McClementAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 13:59ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Rich Peverley, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
- P1 19:57ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Evander Kane, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 13:49STLJay McClementAssists: Matt D'Agostini, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 15:35STLJay McClementAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Nathan Oystrick · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
- 3. STL Brad Boyes scored
- 4. ATL Alexander Burmistrov stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:51STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:31STLEric Brewer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:39STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:47ATLNik Antropov: Interference2 min
- P2 11:50STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 0:12STLAlex Pietrangelo: Kneeing2 min
- P3 1:53STLDavid Backes: Kneeing2 min
- P3 2:56STLBarret Jackman: Interference2 min
- P3 5:21ATLZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:15ATLZach Bogosian: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestEager – Stewart – Burmistrov9:14
xG 0.60–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Modin – Boulton – Slater6:38
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Peverley – Bergfors – Kane2:36
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors6:24
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien16:40
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Oduya – Bogosian13:18
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Sopel – Hainsey8:35
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Steen – D'Agostini9:39
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Berglund10:53
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Winchester – Crombeen – Sobotka3:15
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Backes – Oshie – Perron10:44
xG 0.25–0.48 (35%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Pietrangelo14:23
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Brewer – Oystrick2:16
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Oystrick – Strachan7:24
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).