Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 08 | 115 | 134 |
| COL | 17 | 316 | 18 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14COLDavid JonesAssists: Milan Hejduk, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 0:50COLChris StewartPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–2
- P2 10:00COLDavid LiffitonAssists: Daniel Winnik, Brandon Yip · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 10:44COLPaul StastnyAssists: Chris Stewart, TJ Galiardi · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 6:06COLCody McLeodAssists: Ryan Wilson, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 8:37CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: Rick Nash, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:43COLRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min
- P1 11:38COLBrandon Yip: Holding2 min
- P1 15:37CBJRick Nash: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:45CBJMarc Methot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:27CBJRostislav Klesla: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:34COLRyan Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:34CBJDerek Dorsett: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:08CBJNikita Filatov: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:27CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:01CBJMarc Methot: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:39CBJJared Boll: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:39COLChris Stewart: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:39COLChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:39COLDavid Liffiton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:39CBJFedor Tyutin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34CBJDerek Dorsett: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Dorsett4:53
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Umberger – Nash – Brassard3:20
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Filatov3:23
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek5:13
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Holden12:36
xG 0.81–0.50 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Klesla – Methot11:52
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Russell13:04
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Jones – Duchene8:03
xG 0.71–0.47 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly5:50
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Jones – Yip – Duchene2:05
xG 0.03–0.04 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – McLeod – Duchene2:02
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiffiton – Wilson2:39
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Holos2:48
xG 0.31–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Liles – Liffiton3:10
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).