Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Phoenix Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 110 | 26 | 323 |
| PHX | 06 | 07 | 010 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:59TBLMattias RitolaGWGAssists: Blair Jones, Ryan Malone · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 4:26TBLAdam HallAssists: Nate Thompson, Sean Bergenheim · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 14:38TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Steve Downie, Randy Jones · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–0
Penalties (13)
- P2 18:42TBLPavel Kubina: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:42PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:24PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:32TBLMartin St. Louis: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:45TBLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:54TBLPavel Kubina: Kneeing2 min
- P3 12:54PHXShane Doan: Instigator2 min
- P3 12:54TBLPavel Kubina: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:54PHXShane Doan: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:54PHXShane Doan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:05PHXKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:05TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:05PHXKeith Yandle: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Bergenheim – Purcell8:09
xG 0.92–0.25 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Malone – Ritola – Jones5:31
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos12:39
xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- St. Louis – Lecavalier – Stamkos2:19
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Jones10:24
xG 0.94–0.54 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Clark – Hedman12:42
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Lundin2:12
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Upshall – Korpikoski – Turris7:26
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Belanger – Upshall – Stempniak3:30
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Whitney – Doan – Belanger10:12
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Prucha – Ebbett8:03
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski16:03
xG 0.85–0.57 (60%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson12:34
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Yandle2:26
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).