Sat, Oct 30, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Washington Capitals 7, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 614 | 06 | 728 |
| CGY | 216 | 06 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:05CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Brendan Mikkelson, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 15:22WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Mike Green, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 3:43WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 3:55WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 10:28WSHMike GreenAssists: Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 10:41WSHMatt BradleyUnassisted · Deflected, 0.09 xG5–2
- P2 13:55WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG6–2
- P2 18:23WSHDavid SteckelUnassisted · Snap, 0.36 xG7–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:18CGYRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min
- P1 7:52WSHBoyd Gordon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:33WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:33CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:33WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:59CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:54CGYOlli Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:16CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:34WSHMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:52WSHNicklas Backstrom: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:23CGYMark Giordano: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:31WSHJeff Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:15WSHJohn Carlson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laich won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBradley – Chimera – Gordon7:48
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:40
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Steckel – King5:50
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Fleischmann10:19
xG 0.40–0.81 (33%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Fahey10:17
xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Schultz – Green12:53
xG 0.48–0.18 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Carlson2:27
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestConroy – Jackman – Meyer5:48
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan10:36
xG 0.52–0.24 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Morrison – Glencross – Backlund8:07
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque10:29
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Giordano14:38
xG 0.75–0.27 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Sarich – Mikkelson13:38
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Regehr – Bouwmeester13:31
xG 0.31–0.82 (28%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).