Tue, Nov 2, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 29 | 04 | 324 |
| TOR | 05 | 012 | 218 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:06OTTMike FisherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 7:33OTTSergei GoncharPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 9:59OTTErik KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 5:15TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Clarke MacArthur · Snap, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 19:09TORClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Kris Versteeg · Snap, 0.25 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:24TORMikhail Grabovski: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:06TORMike Komisarek: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 0:35OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min
- P2 2:39OTTJarkko Ruutu: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:19TORLuca Caputi: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:23TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:34TORCarl Gunnarsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:16OTTJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:57OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:29OTTDavid Hale: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brent won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Neil – Kelly9:53
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Shannon2:42
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin8:42
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester3:43
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli12:08
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Carkner – Hale2:44
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips13:38
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin8:49
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Kessel – Bozak5:28
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Orr – Brown – Hanson2:29
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brent – Versteeg – Brown3:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Komisarek4:51
xG 0.39–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Kaberle – Beauchemin5:05
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Komisarek2:21
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).