Tue, Nov 2, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 0, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 09 | 016 | 036 |
| MIN | 03 | 16 | 07 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:19MINAndrew BrunettePPGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:39SJSDouglas Murray: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:53MINJustin Falk: Interference2 min
- P1 18:45SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
- P1 19:15MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:20MINGreg Zanon: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:06SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:06MINJustin Falk: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:06SJSRyane Clowe: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:10MINBrent Burns: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:27SJSJohn McCarthy: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 12:38SJSTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:33SJSDevin Setoguchi: Holding2 min
- P3 10:51MINNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:29SJSDan Boyle: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:14SJSJason Demers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Pavelski – Mitchell6:36
xG 0.67–0.05 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley7:54
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy3:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – McGinn – Couture4:52
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Vlasic7:59
xG 0.40–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray11:52
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Huskins – Demers10:21
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Havlat – Koivu3:12
xG 0.18–0.13 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Kobasew6:25
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Clutterbuck3:18
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Staubitz – Gillies2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Falk3:27
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky7:04
xG 0.04–0.16 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Barker – Falk6:46
xG 0.03–0.43 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).