Tue, Nov 2, 2010·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 311 | 010 | 19 | 430 |
| EDM | 05 | 112 | 29 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:33VANRaffi TorresAssists: Manny Malhotra, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P1 15:13VANRaffi TorresPPAssists: Kevin Bieksa · Tip-in, 0.23 xG3–0
- P2 9:16EDMDustin PennerAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 3:48EDMRyan JonesAssists: Zack Stortini, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–2
- P3 5:28EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Ladislav Smid · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 10:53VANRaffi TorresGWGAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Roberto Luongo · Backhand, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:30EDMLadislav Smid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:41VANChristian Ehrhoff: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:41EDMTom Gilbert: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:31VANRaffi Torres: Interference2 min
- P2 14:34EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34EDMDustin Penner: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:54VANAndrew Alberts: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows11:46
xG 1.26–0.79 (62%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond12:24
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen11:20
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Schaefer – Desbiens – Glass4:16
xG 0.05–0.61 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler14:24
xG 1.07–0.36 (75%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Alberts15:47
xG 0.89–0.24 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Ballard – Rome14:01
xG 0.52–1.48 (26%)attempts 9–25goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Stortini – Jones6:57
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Penner – Brule – Cogliano8:31
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Horcoff – Eberle – Hall13:15
xG 0.82–0.79 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi12:43
xG 0.33–1.07 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoster – Whitney2:24
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Strudwick – Smid10:21
xG 0.93–0.68 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Gilbert – Whitney17:08
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).