Wed, Nov 3, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 312 | 18 | 16 | 526 |
| BUF | 09 | 112 | 114 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32BOSBrad MarchandSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:54BOSPatrice BergeronSHAssists: Brad Marchand, Gregory Campbell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 16:54BOSBlake WheelerGWGAssists: Michael Ryder, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P2 2:11BOSMichael RyderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–0
- P2 16:39BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.28 xG4–1
- P3 15:26BUFAndrej SekeraUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:53BOSMilan LucicENAssists: David Krejci, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:49BOSMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15BOSDennis Seidenberg: Holding2 min
- P1 18:11BUFTim Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:20BUFTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:57BOSMark Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:57BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:57BUFCody McCormick: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:57BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:57BUFCody McCormick: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:58BOSBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:07BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:07BUFPatrick Kaleta: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:07BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:42BOSTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57BOSShawn Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:20BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:06BUFCraig Rivet: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:12BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Krejci – Lucic10:28
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ryder – Wheeler – Seguin8:20
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand4:11
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Caron8:33
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Ference12:38
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Stuart – McQuaid8:58
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Hunwick12:34
xG 0.21–0.35 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Connolly – Pominville5:05
xG 0.23–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis2:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Vanek3:20
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Roy – Stafford – Ennis4:17
xG 0.02–0.02 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeopold – Myers2:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Myers11:25
xG 0.33–0.28 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Rivet – Sekera8:39
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).