Wed, Nov 3, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Atlanta Thrashers 4, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 17 | 15 | 211 | 423 |
| FLA | 110 | 123 | 122 | 355 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:38FLAJason GarrisonAssists: Mike Weaver, Cory Stillman · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:54ATLFreddy ModinAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 9:51ATLFreddy ModinAssists: Eric Boulton · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 17:53FLASteve ReinprechtAssists: Bryan McCabe, Rostislav Olesz · Tip-in, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 4:31FLABryan AllenAssists: Michael Frolik, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 9:59ATLDustin ByfuglienAssists: Jim Slater · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 11:10ATLNiclas BergforsGWGAssists: Rich Peverley, Zach Bogosian · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:58FLACory Stillman: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:32FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:32ATLBen Eager: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:07ATLEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Reasoner won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- Eager – Slater – Stewart3:03
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Eager – Stewart – Burmistrov7:37
xG 0.02–0.17 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors15:54
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Modin – Boulton – Slater7:46
xG 0.50–1.00 (33%)attempts 10–13goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- Sopel – Hainsey11:48
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien18:24
xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 15–25goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian18:18
xG 0.21–0.94 (18%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinprecht – Higgins – Olesz4:55
xG 0.90–0.02 (98%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Weiss – Booth – Frolik11:00
xG 1.00–0.12 (89%)attempts 22–5goals 1–0
- Weiss – Higgins – Frolik4:57
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Olesz – Matthias5:32
xG 0.21–0.22 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Wideman3:13
xG 0.75–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Weaver – Garrison14:38
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- McCabe – Kulikov12:30
xG 0.61–0.34 (65%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).