Wed, Nov 3, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 04 | 112 | 17 | 223 |
| DAL | 212 | 26 | 111 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51DALStephane RobidasAssists: Brenden Morrow, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:57DALBrad RichardsAssists: James Neal, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:20PITTyler KennedyAssists: Max Talbot · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 10:52DALSteve OttGWGAssists: Stephane Robidas, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:51DALLoui ErikssonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.36 xG1–4
- P3 5:13DALLoui ErikssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 15:36PITMatt CookeAssists: Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (22)
- P1 13:14DALTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P1 13:37DALAdam Burish: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:46PITMark Letestu: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:43DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:43PITTyler Kennedy: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:18PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:55DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:51PITAlex Goligoski: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:31PITKris Letang: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:31DALBrenden Morrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:31PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:31DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:33DALMatt Niskanen: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:33PITSidney Crosby: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:44PITEric Godard: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:42DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:42PITChris Kunitz: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:42DALBrandon Segal: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:37PITArron Asham: Holding2 min
- P3 12:06DALBrenden Morrow: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:06PITArron Asham: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:40PITDeryk Engelland: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAsham – Talbot – Letestu3:32
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Comrie – Kunitz – Crosby4:56
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Asham – Kunitz – Crosby2:51
xG 0.01–0.18 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Cooke – Malkin – Kennedy5:11
xG 0.02–0.48 (3%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Goligoski2:25
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Orpik – Engelland5:51
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Martin – Engelland3:53
xG 0.04–0.03 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Wandell6:38
xG 0.35–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal9:46
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn8:43
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Petersen – Sutherby – Segal6:10
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Fistric15:09
xG 0.78–0.37 (68%)attempts 19–21goals 1–0
- Robidas – Grossmann14:17
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Skrastins – Niskanen8:23
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).