Wed, Nov 3, 2010·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 29 | 012 | 233 |
| CGY | 16 | 07 | 04 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:58CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:54DETMike ModanoAssists: Daniel Cleary, Brad Stuart · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 12:05DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:23DETBrad Stuart: Interference2 min
- P1 5:03DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:03CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P1 13:04CGYCraig Conroy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 14:51DETJohan Franzen: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:10DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:18CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:38DETValtteri Filppula: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:58CGYJarome Iginla: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:58CGYJarome Iginla: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:58DETBrad Stuart: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:42CGYTim Jackman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:55DETRuslan Salei: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:09CGYAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestModano – Cleary – Abdelkader5:56
xG 0.57–0.05 (92%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg9:26
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Eaves – Miller – Helm6:58
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen9:52
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Ericsson10:53
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Salei – Kindl5:38
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Kronwall14:14
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestConroy – Jackman – Glencross5:01
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque4:11
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan4:38
xG 0.06–0.08 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Morrison – Jokinen – Hagman3:32
xG 0.02–0.06 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- White – Giordano14:38
xG 0.24–0.57 (29%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Sarich – Mikkelson8:33
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- Regehr – Bouwmeester12:13
xG 0.19–0.88 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).