Wed, Nov 3, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 3, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 18 | 012 | 331 |
| PHX | 18 | 110 | 210 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08PHXEd JovanovskiAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Hanzal · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 8:58NSHFrancis BouillonAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 9:28NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 1:09PHXEd JovanovskiAssists: Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 12:44NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Cal O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–2
- P3 4:23PHXLee StempniakPPAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 5:38PHXEd JovanovskiPPGWGAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:08PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:53PHXTaylor Pyatt: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:04NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:51PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:56NSHNick Spaling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:00NSHCody Franson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 6:02PHXVernon Fiddler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSullivan – O'Reilly – Hornqvist8:57
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Dumont – Smithson – Spaling6:08
xG 0.18–0.17 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Legwand – Ward – Wilson10:57
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Goc – Tootoo – Kostitsyn9:32
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – Franson11:34
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Klein – O'Brien16:09
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Weber13:49
xG 0.27–0.59 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Prucha – Upshall4:04
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:09
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Prucha – Korpikoski – Wolski2:22
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Korpikoski – Wolski3:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJovanovski – Lepisto10:23
xG 0.58–0.18 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson10:35
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle17:29
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).