Thu, Nov 4, 2010·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 02 | 19 | 010 | 121 |
| PHI | 08 | 38 | 15 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:53NYRBrandon DubinskyPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:12PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Ville Leino · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 9:32PHIBlair BettsGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 15:20PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 3:07PHIChris ProngerPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:16NYRDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:16PHIJody Shelley: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:51NYRMichael Sauer: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:05NYRMarc Staal: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:22PHIJody Shelley: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00PHIJeff Carter: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:16NYRDan Girardi: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:36NYRDerek Boogaard: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:07NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:32NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:32PHIDaniel Carcillo: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:24PHIEric Wellwood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov7:07
xG 0.23–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Frolov – Christensen – Prust6:22
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Boogaard – Stepan – Grachev2:03
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Avery – Boyle6:57
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi2:52
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Staal10:58
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Eminger – Sauer9:40
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestShelley – Betts – Carcillo2:31
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Carter – Leino8:11
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Giroux – Powe6:15
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 1–0
- Richards – van Riemsdyk – Wellwood8:05
xG 0.01–0.62 (2%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn6:08
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle6:19
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Carle – Meszaros2:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).