Thu, Nov 4, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Atlanta Thrashers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 011 | 114 | 217 | 342 |
| ATL | 08 | 09 | 08 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:46CBJDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Rick Nash · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 10:14CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Marc Methot, Derick Brassard · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–0
- P3 18:34CBJR.J. UmbergerENAssists: Samuel Pahlsson · Snap, 0.68 xG3–0
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:25CBJJakub Voracek: Interference2 min
- P2 8:02CBJAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P3 3:58ATLDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Umberger – Filatov11:39
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Wilson – Boll9:41
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek12:07
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett12:01
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Russell15:39
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Klesla – Methot14:27
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Hejda – Stralman19:35
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestEager – Stewart – Burmistrov5:03
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Modin – Boulton – Slater9:36
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Antropov – Thorburn – Kane6:29
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Eager – Burmistrov7:03
xG 0.10–0.25 (28%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Welch14:27
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian16:49
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:16
xG 0.43–0.66 (40%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).