Thu, Nov 4, 2010·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
New York Islanders 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 09 | 110 | 129 |
| OTT | 110 | 211 | 16 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20OTTSergei GoncharAssists: Jason Spezza, Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 3:47OTTDavid HaleGWGAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:17OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Ryan Shannon, Peter Regin · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 3:40NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 19:47OTTChris KellyENAssists: Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:09OTTZack Smith: Boarding5 min
- P2 16:20NYIDoug Weight: Interference2 min
- P3 3:26OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:03OTTChris Campoli: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03NYIMatt Martin: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:50OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:50NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey4:51
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Weight – Schremp – Martin3:28
xG 0.15–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Schremp – Comeau2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Schremp – Martin2:44
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Hillen8:51
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Eaton – Wisniewski3:25
xG 0.04–0.10 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Martinek – Gervais3:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Neil – Kelly10:06
xG 0.72–0.33 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin12:01
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno9:24
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Shannon – Smith – Winchester6:00
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli12:47
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips13:29
xG 0.44–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hale – Karlsson10:33
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).