Thu, Nov 4, 2010·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 0, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 05 | 011 | 025 |
| STL | 18 | 114 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:41STLMatt D'AgostiniGWGAssists: Barret Jackman, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 14:12STLDavid PerronAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
Penalties (19)
- P1 4:41SJSDevin Setoguchi: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:39SJSNiclas Wallin: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:10SJSDevin Setoguchi: Interference2 min
- P1 15:17STLMatt D'Agostini: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:42STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:42SJSJamal Mayers: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:41SJSDan Boyle: Kneeing2 min
- P2 3:22SJSJoe Thornton: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:22SJSFrazer McLaren: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:22STLEric Brewer: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:29SJSJoe Thornton: Illegal check to head5 min
- P2 5:29SJSJoe Thornton: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 5:29SJSLogan Couture: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:29STLAlex Pietrangelo: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:09SJSDany Heatley: Boarding2 min
- P2 9:27STLDavid Backes: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 10:38SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:38STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:42STLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marleau – Heatley3:23
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Clowe – Pavelski – Setoguchi8:15
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Mayers – Mitchell – McGinn2:11
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Heatley – Couture7:29
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray15:25
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Wallin – Vlasic8:43
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Huskins – Demers8:49
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Boyes – Berglund7:18
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Steen – D'Agostini7:40
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Steen – Crombeen – Sobotka4:35
xG 0.23–0.22 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Oshie – Perron8:23
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOystrick – Strachan7:46
xG 0.83–0.14 (86%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo11:42
xG 0.41–0.20 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Brewer – Johnson12:23
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).