Thu, Nov 4, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 118 | 111 | 17 | 336 |
| COL | 08 | 012 | 114 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:33VANHenrik SedinPPGWGAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P3 4:03VANRaffi TorresPPAssists: Aaron Rome, Mason Raymond · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 16:52COLDavid Van Der GulikAssists: Cody McLeod, Philippe Dupuis · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:33COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 3:16COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:16VANGuillaume Desbiens: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05VANMason Raymond: Holding2 min
- P2 2:49COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27COLBrandon Yip: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:26COLKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:43VANKevin Bieksa: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows9:12
xG 1.11–0.45 (71%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Schaefer – Samuelsson – Glass2:24
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond12:22
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen9:51
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Edler16:12
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Alberts14:18
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Ballard – Rome12:01
xG 0.68–0.80 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestVan Der Gulik – Dupuis – McLeod3:01
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Hejduk – Winnik – O'Reilly2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Duchene2:17
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi8:27
xG 0.20–0.30 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiffiton – Quincey7:11
xG 0.55–0.32 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Liles – Holos2:00
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hannan – Holos9:16
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).