Fri, Nov 5, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Boston Bruins 3, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 03 | 06 | 39 | 318 |
| WSH | 08 | 317 | 214 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:59WSHTyler SloanAssists: Tomas Fleischmann · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:35WSHMike GreenAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 17:50WSHAlexander SeminSHAssists: Mike Green · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 3:07BOSMichael RyderPPAssists: Mark Recchi, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–3
- P3 4:02BOSNathan HortonPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 9:51BOSShawn ThorntonAssists: Brad Marchand, Mark Stuart · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 13:25WSHJohn CarlsonGWGAssists: Eric Fehr, Boyd Gordon · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 19:08WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:47BOSTyler Seguin: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:49BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:24WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:24BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:52WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:27BOSMark Stuart: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:22WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:27WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Campbell – Wheeler3:38
xG 0.18–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand7:55
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Recchi – Bergeron – Caron11:51
xG 0.04–0.39 (10%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Ryder – Wheeler – Seguin6:36
xG 0.07–0.43 (13%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Stuart3:24
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Chara – Seidenberg8:02
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Chara – Stuart2:26
xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Gordon – Fehr11:33
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin2:23
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Bradley – Hendricks – Steckel7:45
xG 0.34–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Fleischmann7:44
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Sloan12:11
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green17:36
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson15:42
xG 1.06–0.71 (60%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).