Fri, Nov 5, 2010·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 011 | 012 | 134 |
| MIN | 110 | 09 | 14 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45CGYRene BourquePPAssists: Mark Giordano, Brendan Morrison · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:30MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Andrew Brunette, Justin Falk · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 4:20MINMartin HavlatGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:23MINBrad Staubitz: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 9:23CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:23MINBrad Staubitz: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:14MINMatt Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:47CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:36MINBrad Staubitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:50CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:35MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:43CGYAlex Tanguay: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMorrison – Moss – Backlund10:58
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Stajan11:19
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Conroy – Jackman – Meyer7:11
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Hagman – Bourque10:33
xG 0.08–0.39 (17%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Giordano14:01
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Sarich – Bouwmeester13:53
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Regehr – White14:30
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Havlat – Brodziak10:50
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Clutterbuck10:24
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Brunette – Havlat – Koivu2:20
xG 0.01–0.04 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Kassian – Almond3:57
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Burns14:57
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Zanon – Barker2:15
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zanon – Zidlicky14:05
xG 0.33–0.42 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).