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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 5, 2010·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Phoenix Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 6

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

3

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX0918211328
DAL11341018631

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:44DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:42DALBrad RichardsAssists: James Neal, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:21DALBrad RichardsPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–3
  4. P2 13:34PHXSami LepistoAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P2 16:06DALJamie BennPPGWGAssists: Steve Ott, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
  6. P2 17:09DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–5
  7. P3 2:28PHXShane DoanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Lee Stempniak · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
  8. P3 16:33DALBrenden MorrowAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–6
  9. P3 16:58PHXLauri KorpikoskiAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:26PHXScottie Upshall: Interference2 min
  2. P1 5:34DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
  3. P1 7:39DALTrevor Daley: Delaying game2 min
  4. P1 10:56PHXVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 14:45PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 4:16PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:26DALBrian Sutherby: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 14:17PHXSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 16:27PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min · PPG
  10. P3 1:13DALKari Lehtonen: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  11. P3 10:07DALJames Neal: High sticking double minor4 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
47% to win53% to win
← PHX attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Ott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDAL
28Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals3.3
48Shot attempts56
37Faceoffs won30
6Power plays6
12Penalty minutes12
30Hits20
15Blocked shots13
10Giveaways6
5Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Phoenix Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestDoan – Belanger – Upshall5:23

    xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0

  2. Fiddler – Stempniak – Wolski3:16

    xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1

  3. Pyatt – Bissonnette – Korpikoski2:50

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0

  4. Doan – Belanger – Wolski4:23

    xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestAucoin – Jovanovski2:49

    xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1

  2. Aucoin – Lepisto2:19

    xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

  3. Lepisto – Schlemko2:11

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal11:19

    xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0

  2. Barch – Ott – Burish8:28

    xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0

  3. Petersen – Sutherby – Segal7:24

    xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1

  4. Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn6:07

    xG 0.18–0.25 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestSkrastins – Niskanen11:34

    xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0

  2. Robidas – Grossmann10:55

    xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0

  3. Daley – Fistric11:04

    xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 11–8goals 2–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.3 xGPHX 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 51/100 · #567 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.82 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 72% of the time.

DAL winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).