Sat, Nov 6, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 2, Boston Bruins 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 012 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 235 |
| BOS | 06 | 012 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:40STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 13:00BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Michael Ryder, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. BOS Tyler Seguin scored
- 4. STL Brad Boyes scored
- 5. BOS Michael Ryder stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:58BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:01STLDavid Backes: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:01BOSAndrew Ference: Instigator2 min
- P2 4:01BOSAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:01BOSAndrew Ference: Misconduct10 min
- P2 11:37BOSMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:37STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:02STLEric Brewer: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57BOSMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:44BOSAdam McQuaid: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:43STLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:39BOSNathan Horton: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:39STLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:35STLAlex Pietrangelo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Boyes – Janssen – Sobotka2:27
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – Oshie10:21
xG 0.22–0.24 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- McClement – Crombeen – D'Agostini8:54
xG 0.17–0.20 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Steen – Sobotka3:02
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrachan – Cole3:42
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Brewer – Strachan2:55
xG 0.06–0.01 (85%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Pietrangelo9:56
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic12:42
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand8:50
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ryder – Wheeler – Seguin7:19
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Recchi – Bergeron – Caron8:48
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McQuaid5:12
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference9:34
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Stuart – McQuaid7:18
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).