Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 117 | 16 | 331 |
| MTL | 08 | 16 | 19 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:50OTTAlex KovalevAssists: Erik Karlsson, Peter Regin · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:15OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jesse Winchester · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 18:39MTLJaroslav SpacekAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 6:42OTTAlex KovalevPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Peter Regin · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 15:53MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Jaroslav Spacek, Roman Hamrlik · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31MTLMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:15OTTChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:25OTTJarkko Ruutu: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09MTLMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:55MTLJeff Halpern: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:57MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:59MTLJaroslav Spacek: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:40MTLBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShannon – Smith – Winchester5:07
xG 0.75–0.17 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:47
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Kovalev – Spezza – Regin11:12
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Foligno10:21
xG 0.01–0.12 (10%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHale – Karlsson10:21
xG 0.88–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Carkner – Campoli11:28
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Karlsson2:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Darche – Pouliot11:33
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Lapierre2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec9:54
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Gomez – Moen – Kostitsyn6:05
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Spacek14:20
xG 0.51–0.21 (70%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Markov – Gorges13:30
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban4:36
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).