Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 05 | 111 | 226 |
| NYI | 09 | 114 | 09 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:52PHIMike RichardsAssists: Chris Pronger · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 7:31NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Dwayne Roloson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 14:35PHIAndreas NodlGWGAssists: Eric Wellwood, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:38NYIMichael Grabner: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:51PHIChris Pronger: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:33PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:06PHIDarroll Powe: Holding2 min
- P2 6:36PHIJeff Carter: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:02NYIZenon Konopka: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:00PHIChris Pronger: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:54PHISergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Nodl – Wellwood9:47
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Carter – Leino9:49
xG 0.64–0.07 (90%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Giroux – Powe6:42
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo5:49
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Donnell – Meszaros11:34
xG 0.88–0.56 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:01
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Pronger – Carle15:01
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Comeau – Grabner – Tavares7:42
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Schremp – Bailey – Martin4:38
xG 0.11–0.16 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Weight – Comeau – Tavares2:01
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Hunter – Nielsen – Moulson6:17
xG 0.12–0.40 (23%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGervais – Hillen9:28
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eaton – Wisniewski12:37
xG 0.31–0.74 (30%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Mottau – Martinek15:25
xG 0.31–1.14 (21%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).