Sat, Nov 6, 2010·RBC Center, Raleigh
Florida Panthers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 05 | 211 | 220 |
| CAR | 09 | 111 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:51CAREric StaalPPAssists: Sergei Samsonov, Jeff Skinner · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 2:21CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Erik Cole, Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P3 3:21FLADarcy HordichukAssists: Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 11:41CAREric StaalGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 19:17FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Bryan McCabe, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:03FLABryan McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:30CARJon Matsumoto: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:09FLADarcy Hordichuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:22FLAMike Santorelli: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:45FLAStephen Weiss: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:20CARPatrick Dwyer: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:01FLADavid Booth: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Reasoner – Higgins9:42
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Santorelli2:44
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Weiss – Booth – Frolik3:55
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Booth – Santorelli2:10
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Wideman2:26
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ellerby11:23
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Wideman – Kulikov2:55
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – LaRose – Staal13:14
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 23–10goals 1–0
- Kostopoulos – Jokinen – Matsumoto4:46
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Ruutu – Skinner9:59
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter12:10
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – McBain14:29
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Carson6:49
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Corvo – Harrison14:10
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).