Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Atlanta Thrashers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 213 | 211 | 013 | 03 | 2 | 540 |
| ATL | 116 | 310 | 08 | 03 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:52CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 16:03CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp · Snap, 0.42 xG2–1
- P2 3:02ATLEvander KanePPAssists: Zach Bogosian, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 3:57ATLAlexander BurmistrovAssists: Ben Eager, Freddy Modin · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 4:42CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 11:56ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 16:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. ATL Nik Antropov stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews scored
- 3. ATL Andrew Ladd scored
- 4. CHI Patrick Sharp stopped
- 5. ATL Rich Peverley stopped
- 6. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 7. ATL Evander Kane stopped
- 8. CHI Troy Brouwer stopped
- 9. ATL Dustin Byfuglien stopped
- 10. CHI Viktor Stalberg scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:03CHIJack Skille: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:26CHIViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:44ATLAnthony Stewart: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:29CHITomas Kopecky: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:14ATLJohnny Oduya: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 1:08CHIPatrick Sharp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:40CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStalberg – Toews – Kane14:02
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Sharp – Brouwer – Morin7:31
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Bickell – Dowell10:24
xG 0.16–0.39 (30%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Pisani – Skille – Scott6:31
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson19:12
xG 0.66–0.18 (78%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Boynton – Hendry6:49
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Campbell – Hendry2:33
xG 0.09–0.08 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors11:52
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane11:39
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Modin – Boulton – Burmistrov8:02
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Eager – Slater12:54
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSopel – Hainsey14:11
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian17:26
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien15:56
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).