Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Pepsi Center, Denver
Dallas Stars 0, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 014 | 08 | 031 |
| COL | 114 | 211 | 220 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:02COLKevin PorterGWGAssists: David Van Der Gulik, Philippe Dupuis · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 4:53COLMilan HejdukAssists: Matt Duchene, Brandon Yip · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 13:05COLPhilippe DupuisSHAssists: Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 5:39COLKevin PorterAssists: Philippe Dupuis · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 6:10COLBrandon YipAssists: Matt Duchene, Milan Hejduk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:07COLTJ Galiardi: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:07DALStephane Robidas: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:48DALNicklas Grossmann: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:48DALBrenden Morrow: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:48COLChris Stewart: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:48COLColby Cohen: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:43COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22COLColby Cohen: Holding2 min
- P2 16:16COLKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P3 6:46DALJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:21DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21DALSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53COLBrandon Yip: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:53DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Burish – Wandell3:24
xG 0.62–0.14 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn5:15
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Burish – Wandell4:49
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Ott – Segal – Benn2:30
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley12:55
xG 1.04–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Skrastins – Daley2:30
xG 0.14–0.03 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Woywitka – Grossmann2:37
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stewart – Galiardi10:33
xG 1.18–0.14 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Dupuis – Porter5:48
xG 1.01–0.21 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Winnik – McLeod – O'Reilly11:02
xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Yip – Duchene10:45
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Quincey12:33
xG 1.84–0.34 (84%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Liles – Cohen14:02
xG 1.07–0.31 (78%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Holos13:43
xG 0.40–0.73 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).