Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 313 | 014 | 00 | 1 | 436 |
| PHX | 28 | 110 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35PHXEric BelangerAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 6:56PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ray Whitney, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 1:16PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 4:18PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Arron Asham, Paul Martin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 15:36PHXWojtek WolskiAssists: Eric Belanger, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 19:26PITChris KunitzPPAssists: Mark Letestu, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 2. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 3. PHX Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 4. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 5. PHX Lauri Korpikoski stopped
- 6. PIT Mark Letestu scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:08PITPascal Dupuis: Interference2 min
- P1 16:23PHXDavid Schlemko: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:10PITZbynek Michalek: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:10PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:10PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:27PITArron Asham: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:17PHXSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:07PHXMartin Hanzal: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:28PITMatt Cooke: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:13PHXRay Whitney: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:39PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby9:15
xG 0.67–0.16 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Crosby2:49
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Comrie – Kennedy – Letestu4:45
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Adams – Rupp – Talbot4:51
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang8:43
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek10:58
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Michalek – Goligoski4:43
xG 0.07–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:33
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Upshall – Bissonnette – Turris4:20
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Belanger – Stempniak – Wolski11:26
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski12:12
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Morris – Yandle14:47
xG 0.51–0.52 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Aucoin – Schlemko11:43
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
- Lepisto – Ekman-Larsson11:43
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).