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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 6, 2010·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Detroit Red Wings 4, Vancouver Canucks 6

Away

Detroit Red Wings

4

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.

VAN winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET0831317428
VAN1526323634

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:35VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.23 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:51DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Mike Modano · Deflected, 0.30 xG1–1
  3. P2 4:29DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Tomas Holmstrom, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:33VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Tanner Glass, Ryan Kesler · Deflected, 0.32 xG2–2
  5. P2 17:51VANManny MalhotraSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:01DETJonathan EricssonPPAssists: Nicklas Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. P3 1:40DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Johan Franzen, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
  8. P3 3:48VANJannik HansenAssists: Manny Malhotra, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–4
  9. P3 8:18VANAlexander EdlerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–5
  10. P3 11:02VANManny MalhotraPPAssists: Mason Raymond, Aaron Rome · Wrist, 0.39 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 1:41VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
  2. P1 8:01DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
  3. P2 9:43DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 9:43VANKeith Ballard: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 10:20VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 13:39VANRaffi Torres: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 17:15VANRyan Kesler: Boarding2 min · PPG
  8. P3 7:28DETJohan Franzen: Holding2 min · PPG
  9. P3 9:31DETTodd Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P3 11:32DETTomas Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 16:43DETDaniel Cleary: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
47% to win53% to win
← DET attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Malhotra
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETVAN
28Shots on goal34
2.6Expected goals4.3
59Shot attempts59
24Faceoffs won37
4Power plays5
15Penalty minutes13
18Hits28
12Blocked shots23
4Giveaways3
6Takeaways12

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Detroit Red Wings

Forward lines

  1. Bertuzzi – Filppula – Franzen10:06

    xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0

  2. Hudler – Miller – Helm5:24

    xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0

  3. Modano – Cleary – Abdelkader6:33

    xG 0.38–0.61 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1

  4. Holmstrom – Datsyuk – Zetterberg10:04

    xG 0.62–0.85 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. Salei – Kindl9:14

    xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1

  2. Lidstrom – Ericsson11:53

    xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2

  3. Stuart – Kronwall13:05

    xG 0.25–0.91 (22%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestMalhotra – Torres – Hansen10:01

    xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1

  2. Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:53

    xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  3. Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond10:28

    xG 0.64–0.59 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1

  4. Schaefer – Glass – Rypien2:47

    xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestEhrhoff – Edler16:39

    xG 1.02–0.74 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1

  2. Bieksa – Alberts12:19

    xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0

  3. Ballard – Rome10:54

    xG 0.24–0.67 (26%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 4.3 xGDET 2.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #21 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.80 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 19% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 75% of the time.

VAN winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).