Sat, Nov 6, 2010·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 06 | 119 | 235 |
| SJS | 212 | 220 | 17 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16SJSPatrick MarleauSHUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:58TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:26SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 11:27SJSDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P2 17:27SJSJohn McCarthyAssists: Jamal Mayers, Douglas Murray · Slap, 0.25 xG1–4
- P3 0:27SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Dany Heatley · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 18:13TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Brett Clark · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:50SJSDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
- P1 15:08TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:50TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:19TBLSean Bergenheim: Holding2 min
- P2 2:50TBLSean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:57TBLRyan Malone: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:54SJSJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:54TBLRyan Malone: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:17TBLSteve Downie: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:12SJSKent Huskins: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:00SJSScott Nichol: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43SJSJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mitchell won the faceoff against Hall
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Malone – Bergenheim2:07
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Bergenheim – Thompson3:55
xG 0.71–0.23 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos9:40
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell3:37
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman12:01
xG 1.56–0.85 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Kubina – Hedman3:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kubina – Lundin8:00
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Heatley – Couture9:45
xG 1.06–0.48 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy8:35
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – Ferriero6:55
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Clowe – Pavelski – Setoguchi9:45
xG 0.62–1.51 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray14:17
xG 1.36–0.40 (77%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
- Huskins – Demers12:27
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Wallin – Vlasic12:26
xG 0.36–1.18 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).