Sun, Nov 7, 2010·Verizon Center, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Washington Capitals 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 111 | 08 | 00 | 225 |
| WSH | 114 | 112 | 011 | 12 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51PHINikolay ZherdevAssists: Andreas Nodl, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:29WSHEric FehrAssists: John Erskine, Tyler Sloan · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:04PHIVille LeinoAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Daniel Brière · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:54WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 0:29WSHMike GreenPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble · Slap, 0.25 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:12PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:39PHIJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:30PHIVille Leino: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:58WSHBrooks Laich: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:41WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:05PHIChris Pronger: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:41PHISean O'Donnell: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Hartnell – Leino11:07
xG 0.85–0.10 (90%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe12:52
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Shelley – Betts – Carcillo4:07
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Richards – Nodl12:31
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 9–22goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle13:31
xG 0.85–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn14:48
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Coburn – Carle3:19
xG 0.04–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Ovechkin – Backstrom9:02
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Laich – Fleischmann – Semin3:31
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Fleischmann4:11
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Knuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:47
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson15:44
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Schultz – Green17:18
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Erskine – Sloan9:40
xG 0.25–0.90 (22%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).