Sun, Nov 7, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 2, New York Rangers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 15 | 13 | 222 |
| NYR | 08 | 07 | 012 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:16STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Brad Boyes, Nathan Oystrick · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 19:56STLAlexander SteenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:49NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:01NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:10NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:10STLTyson Strachan: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:17STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:10STLPatrik Berglund: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:03NYRDerek Boogaard: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:42STLAndy McDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:25STLB.J. Crombeen: Boarding5 min
- P3 13:44NYRSteve Eminger: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Backes – Oshie8:33
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Boyes – Steen – Berglund7:58
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- McClement – Crombeen – Sobotka2:03
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McClement – Crombeen – D'Agostini7:14
xG 0.06–0.27 (20%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Johnson12:34
xG 0.65–0.41 (61%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Oystrick – Strachan3:41
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Nikitin – Pietrangelo6:14
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Boyle – Prust6:39
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov8:47
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Boogaard – Stepan – Grachev2:12
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Fedotenko – Frolov – Christensen5:59
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Del Zotto10:35
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Rozsival – Del Zotto2:23
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Sauer2:22
xG 0.09–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).