Tue, Nov 9, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 114 | 25 | 25 | 524 |
| NYR | 211 | 18 | 09 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Dan Girardi, Sean Avery · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:52WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 12:56NYRBrian BoylePPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 2:34WSHJohn ErskineAssists: Tyler Sloan, Matt Hendricks · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 3:15NYRDerek BoogaardUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 9:18WSHMike KnubleAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 7:53WSHMatt HendricksGWGAssists: Matt Bradley, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:54WSHBrooks LaichENAssists: Mike Green, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:17NYRBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:17WSHMike Green: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:06NYRBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:06WSHJason Chimera: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:28NYRErik Christensen: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:52NYRSean Avery: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 10:53WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 11:15WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:29NYRMichael Sauer: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29WSHMatt Hendricks: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:29NYRMichael Sauer: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:21WSHBoyd Gordon: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:05NYRDan Girardi: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:25WSHKarl Alzner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Backstrom2:47
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom8:33
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Fleischmann7:22
xG 0.03–0.35 (7%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Chimera – Gordon – Fehr8:08
xG 0.11–0.48 (19%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green16:26
xG 0.74–0.49 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Erskine – Sloan8:37
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Alzner – Carlson17:08
xG 0.07–1.05 (7%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFedotenko – Frolov – Stepan11:04
xG 0.83–0.56 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Avery – Boyle – Prust14:23
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- White – Boogaard – Christensen3:54
xG 0.10–0.13 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov11:36
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Del Zotto16:03
xG 1.08–0.54 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Eminger – Sauer11:39
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi16:52
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).