Wed, Nov 10, 2010·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 010 | 116 | 133 |
| FLA | 16 | 114 | 28 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42FLABryan AllenUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 15:44FLASteve ReinprechtPPGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–2
- P3 2:44FLAShawn MatthiasAssists: Michael Frolik, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 12:44FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Shawn Matthias, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 13:25TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:13TORChristian Hanson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:01FLARadek Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P1 17:11FLASteve Reinprecht: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:45FLABryan McCabe: Interference2 min
- P2 14:04TORFrancois Beauchemin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:37FLASteve Reinprecht: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:47TORNikolay Kulemin: Interference2 min
- P3 8:31FLABryan McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:49TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:27TORMike Komisarek: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Reasoner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Versteeg – Grabovski12:10
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Kessel – Kulemin – Bozak11:40
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Orr – Brent – Hanson4:39
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Mitchell – Brown6:46
xG 0.09–0.57 (14%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLebda – Gunnarsson8:55
xG 0.31–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Komisarek9:37
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lebda2:17
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestOlesz – Booth – Santorelli6:57
xG 1.01–0.21 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Reinprecht – Bernier – Booth3:37
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Reinprecht – Hordichuk – Bernier2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Weiss – Frolik – Matthias10:34
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ellerby9:05
xG 0.89–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – Kulikov4:09
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Allen – Weaver8:47
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).