Thu, Nov 11, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 116 | 010 | 215 | 341 |
| BOS | 113 | 013 | 09 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:49BOSZdeno CharaAssists: Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 0:29MTLBrian GiontaPPGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 10:30MTLScott GomezAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Roman Hamrlik · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:00BOSTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 6:41MTLRoman Hamrlik: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:22BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:18MTLMaxim Lapierre: Diving2 min
- P2 7:38BOSShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:38BOSGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:16MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Elbowing2 min
- P2 9:42BOSShawn Thornton: Interference2 min
- P2 19:52BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:58MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Darche – Pouliot9:44
xG 0.46–0.04 (93%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Pyatt – Eller7:30
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Gionta – Cammalleri – Plekanec10:30
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Lapierre8:49
xG 0.32–0.60 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban10:42
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Markov – Gorges14:23
xG 0.62–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Markov – Subban2:58
xG 0.02–0.11 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Wheeler – Caron6:12
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand7:44
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ryder – Paille – Seguin7:31
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Horton – Bergeron – Lucic11:39
xG 0.30–0.63 (33%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Stuart5:33
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference14:59
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Hunwick11:14
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).