Thu, Nov 11, 2010·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 212 | 010 | 01 | 231 |
| NYR | 114 | 14 | 09 | 11 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:04NYRRuslan FedotenkoAssists: Michael Sauer, Brandon Prust · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 15:33BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Derek Roy, Thomas Vanek · Tip-in, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 19:12NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 19:57BUFMike GrierAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Cody McCormick · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 1:32NYRArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Ruslan Fedotenko, Dan Girardi · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:59BUFRob Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:20BUFPaul Gaustad: Interference2 min
- P2 5:12NYRMichael Sauer: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:12BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:12NYRRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:47BUFCody McCormick: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:08BUFJordan Leopold: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17BUFPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:54NYRBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Boyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Ellis – Kaleta7:29
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Hecht – Connolly – Pominville7:03
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis9:53
xG 1.21–1.18 (51%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick13:08
xG 0.50–0.98 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrisonn – Butler9:50
xG 1.39–0.34 (80%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sekera – Myers13:49
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Leopold – Montador17:54
xG 1.04–1.94 (35%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov9:20
xG 1.03–0.43 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Fedotenko – Boyle – Prust12:27
xG 0.55–0.60 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- White – Avery – Stepan8:19
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Frolov – Christensen9:58
xG 0.06–0.77 (8%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEminger – Del Zotto13:38
xG 1.17–0.61 (66%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi14:40
xG 0.96–0.97 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Sauer – Gilroy11:29
xG 0.06–0.34 (16%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).