Thu, Nov 11, 2010·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Minnesota Wild 1, Atlanta Thrashers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 08 | 114 | 133 |
| ATL | 211 | 110 | 213 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24ATLBen EagerAssists: Freddy Modin, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:11ATLJim SlaterGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.37 xG0–2
- P2 19:15ATLAndrew LaddAssists: Rich Peverley, Niclas Bergfors · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 3:15MINAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Brent Burns, Matt Cullen · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 6:06ATLFreddy ModinSHAssists: Toby Enstrom, Alexander Burmistrov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 14:52ATLNik AntropovAssists: Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.16 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:37ATLDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:23ATLZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:36ATLJohnny Oduya: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:35MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P3 19:42MINClayton Stoner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burmistrov won the faceoff against Madden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu9:02
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Brunette – Koivu – Clutterbuck4:23
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Staubitz – Almond – Wellman2:37
xG 0.06–0.21 (21%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Wellman5:32
xG 0.02–0.20 (9%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Barker8:03
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Barker – Falk8:37
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Zanon – Stoner16:01
xG 0.38–0.58 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors12:25
xG 0.95–0.47 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Modin – Eager – Burmistrov12:50
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Slater7:58
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane12:30
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:06
xG 2.10–0.46 (82%)attempts 25–16goals 3–0
- Sopel – Hainsey14:35
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Oduya – Bogosian17:29
xG 0.52–0.88 (37%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).