Thu, Nov 11, 2010·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 1, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 08 | 08 | 128 |
| LAK | 18 | 07 | 214 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:13LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Scott Parse · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:04DALJamie BennAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Karlis Skrastins · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 6:51LAKJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Jarret Stoll, Jack Johnson · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 17:12LAKJack JohnsonPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Michal Handzus · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
Penalties (24)
- P1 8:52DALSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:57LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:10DALJames Neal: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:10LAKMatt Greene: Instigator2 min
- P1 19:10LAKMatt Greene: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:10LAKMatt Greene: Misconduct10 min
- P2 6:06DALBrandon Segal: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:54DALBrandon Segal: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:54LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:33LAKDavis Drewiske: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:33DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:33DALKarlis Skrastins: Interference2 min
- P3 1:38DALLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:53DALMark Fistric: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33DALSteve Ott: Interference2 min
- P3 11:11LAKBrad Richardson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:11DALMark Fistric: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:11LAKWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:28DALBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:48LAKJustin Williams: Holding2 min
- P3 13:29LAKRob Scuderi: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:03DALAdam Burish: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 16:03DALAdam Burish: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 18:41LAKJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Williams won the faceoff against Wandell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Ott – Burish – Wandell7:37
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal9:49
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn6:14
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Ribeiro – Burish2:02
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkrastins – Niskanen9:28
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Daley – Fistric11:24
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann11:53
xG 0.30–0.83 (26%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Stoll7:54
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Brown – Parse – Kopitar10:26
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Lewis – Westgarth – Clifford2:11
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Handzus – Richardson – Simmonds6:17
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Doughty10:40
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Greene – Johnson6:10
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:58
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).