Fri, Nov 12, 2010·Prudential Center, Newark
Edmonton Oilers 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 212 | 18 | 03 | 01 | 324 |
| NJD | 114 | 110 | 112 | 13 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34EDMColin FraserAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Whitney · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 9:50EDMColin FraserAssists: Zack Stortini, Ryan Jones · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 15:43NJDAlexander VasyunovAssists: Travis Zajac, Patrik Elias · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 5:11EDMSam GagnerAssists: Taylor Hall, Ryan Whitney · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 16:52NJDBrian RolstonAssists: David Clarkson, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.47 xG3–2
- P3 11:00NJDMattias TedenbyPPAssists: Andy Greene, Jason Arnott · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 3:27NJDIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Henrik Tallinder, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:46NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:20NJDDavid Clarkson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 12:20NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20NJDDavid Clarkson: Instigator2 min
- P3 4:12EDMJason Strudwick: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:23EDMAles Hemsky: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:41EDMDustin Penner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFraser – Stortini – Eberle2:01
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Gagner – Hall15:54
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Fraser – Stortini – Cogliano2:07
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Penner – Cogliano – Paajarvi8:47
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStrudwick – Whitney10:47
xG 0.51–0.15 (78%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Peckham7:32
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
- Vandermeer – Whitney4:08
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRolston – Zubrus – Clarkson7:38
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Arnott – Elias – Tedenby14:11
xG 0.54–0.25 (68%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Mair – Pelley – Gionta3:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Vasyunov17:23
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Magnan7:25
xG 0.93–0.20 (83%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Taormina14:58
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Volchenkov3:59
xG 0.07–0.05 (56%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).