Fri, Nov 12, 2010·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 03 | 06 | 17 | 116 |
| PIT | 06 | 26 | 38 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:01PITPascal DupuisAssists: Kris Letang, Max Talbot · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 8:28PITAlex GoligoskiGWGAssists: Mike Rupp, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 5:30TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 12:12PITMax TalbotUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 16:44PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 18:50PITDeryk EngellandAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.02 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:07TBLSean Bergenheim: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:23PITMike Rupp: Holding2 min
- P1 16:58TBLJohan Harju: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:37PITKris Letang: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:47TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:18PITTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:28PITMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:54TBLSean Bergenheim: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:23PITBrooks Orpik: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 3:05TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:20PITPascal Dupuis: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:05PITMatt Cooke: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Hall – Thompson – Ritola2:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Bergenheim – Purcell4:01
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos10:11
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClark – Hedman8:30
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kubina – Hedman2:09
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Jones7:46
xG 0.01–0.12 (10%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Rupp – Talbot4:59
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Conner – Letestu7:57
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Asham – Cooke – Malkin4:38
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:38
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Michalek10:31
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Goligoski10:15
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 3–0
- Orpik – Letang12:55
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).