Fri, Nov 12, 2010·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 310 | 19 | 529 |
| CBJ | 19 | 012 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Nikita Filatov, R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:11COLDavid JonesAssists: Matt Duchene, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 10:57COLGreg MauldinSHGWGAssists: David Jones · Snap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 17:12COLPhilippe DupuisAssists: John-Michael Liles · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 19:51COLPaul StastnyAssists: Chris Stewart, Kevin Porter · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 17:52COLDavid JonesAssists: Milan Hejduk, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:34CBJJared Boll: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:25COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27COLKevin Porter: Interference2 min
- P3 3:13COLKevin Porter: Charging2 min
- P3 17:56COLCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Pahlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Stastny – Stewart12:01
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Mauldin – Dupuis – McLeod6:07
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Yip – Winnik – O'Reilly11:23
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene10:31
xG 0.53–0.78 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne18:13
xG 1.23–0.38 (76%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Shattenkirk – Holos9:24
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Hannan – Shattenkirk4:48
xG 0.17–0.04 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Brassard – Voracek13:20
xG 0.79–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Vermette – Umberger – Filatov10:50
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett11:03
xG 0.09–0.57 (14%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
- Murray – Blunden – Boll8:27
xG 0.08–0.63 (12%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Stralman18:09
xG 0.83–0.66 (55%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Russell13:24
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Klesla – Methot14:00
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 8–13goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).