Fri, Nov 12, 2010·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 4, Phoenix Coyotes 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 114 | 211 | 435 |
| PHX | 012 | 39 | 25 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:24CGYRene BourqueAssists: Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–0
- P2 1:34PHXVernon FiddlerAssists: Adrian Aucoin, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 5:22PHXLee StempniakAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 8:21PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 12:40CGYIan WhitePPAssists: Rene Bourque, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 12:24PHXVernon FiddlerAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Taylor Pyatt · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–4
- P3 18:22PHXVernon FiddlerENGWGAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Adrian Aucoin · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
- P3 19:11CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Stajan, Stefan Meyer · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 19:40CGYTim JackmanAssists: Steve Staios, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 12:32PHXEric Belanger: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:01PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:56PHXDerek Morris: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:34PHXScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Moss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Glencross – Bourque11:22
xG 1.18–0.12 (91%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Hagman – Moss – Backlund11:26
xG 0.97–0.13 (89%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Meyer4:45
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Jackman – Stajan4:04
xG 0.11–0.23 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaios – Giordano11:52
xG 1.05–0.44 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Regehr – White18:20
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Sarich – Bouwmeester15:30
xG 0.93–0.81 (54%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Fiddler – Korpikoski8:52
xG 1.21–0.92 (57%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Belanger – Stempniak – Wolski14:04
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Prucha – Hanzal12:43
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Whitney – Upshall – Turris10:39
xG 0.12–0.62 (16%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski13:50
xG 1.35–0.52 (72%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Aucoin – Yandle3:35
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Morris – Lepisto2:20
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).