Sat, Nov 13, 2010·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 115 | 09 | 19 | 233 |
| BOS | 010 | 011 | 010 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34OTTErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Chris Kelly · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 4:15OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:14OTTChris Phillips: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:00BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:00OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:27BOSJordan Caron: Interference2 min
- P2 6:10OTTJason Spezza: Holding2 min
- P2 11:38BOSShawn Thornton: Holding2 min
- P3 12:14BOSMark Recchi: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:14OTTChris Campoli: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:47OTTJarkko Ruutu: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:47BOSMichael Ryder: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wheeler won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKovalev – Spezza – Regin13:51
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Shannon – Foligno – Winchester8:15
xG 0.26–0.10 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Fisher – Michalek12:00
xG 0.30–0.19 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Neil – Kelly9:45
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Campoli11:09
xG 0.49–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Kuba – Karlsson12:34
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Phillips16:01
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Wheeler – Caron10:15
xG 0.31–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ryder – Paille – Seguin6:35
xG 0.08–0.17 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand8:26
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Horton – Bergeron – Lucic11:48
xG 0.18–0.61 (22%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – McQuaid9:05
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Stuart2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chara – Ference15:25
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).