Sat, Nov 13, 2010·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 04 | 17 | 01 | 225 |
| BUF | 06 | 211 | 06 | 14 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03WSHKarl AlznerAssists: Alexander Semin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 10:10BUFSteve MontadorAssists: Mike Grier, Jordan Leopold · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 16:29BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Tim Connolly · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 7:09WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Jason Chimera, John Erskine · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 4:00BUFThomas VanekGWGAssists: Derek Roy, Jordan Leopold · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:38WSHDavid Steckel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:04BUFTim Connolly: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:46WSHJason Chimera: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:46WSHJason Chimera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:05WSHTomas Fleischmann: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 16:05BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:06WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Johansson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKnuble – Ovechkin – Johansson4:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Johansson5:55
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Laich – Fehr3:34
xG 0.05–0.02 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Semin – Ovechkin – Backstrom7:25
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestErskine – Sloan10:43
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Schultz – Green15:50
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson19:16
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hecht – Connolly – Pominville9:23
xG 0.35–0.31 (52%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – McCormick10:17
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–2
- Gaustad – Ellis – Kaleta8:39
xG 0.06–0.16 (29%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Vanek – Ennis10:09
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leopold – Montador14:59
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Sekera – Myers15:01
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Morrisonn – Butler12:11
xG 0.15–0.34 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).