Sat, Nov 13, 2010·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 117 | 26 | 532 |
| TOR | 29 | 17 | 016 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12TORFredrik SjostromAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Kris Versteeg · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 7:39TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 9:39VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P1 17:01VANRyan KeslerAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 0:56VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 11:44TORMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Luke Schenn, Francois Beauchemin · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 13:36VANMason RaymondGWGAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Alexander Edler · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:10VANDan HamhuisENAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:27VANRick Rypien: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:09TORJohn Mitchell: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:00VANDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P2 0:53TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:35VANHenrik Sedin: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:56TORJohn Mitchell: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:44TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:22VANHenrik Sedin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:57TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:57VANTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:49VANManny Malhotra: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malhotra won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSamuelsson – Kesler – Raymond11:41
xG 0.98–0.39 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Glass – Rypien – Bliznak4:12
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:52
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen10:45
xG 0.37–0.78 (32%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Rome14:35
xG 0.86–0.62 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Alberts11:53
xG 0.29–0.23 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa2:43
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKulemin – Bozak – Kadri11:52
xG 0.70–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Orr – Mitchell – Brown4:48
xG 0.08–0.13 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Brent – Versteeg11:51
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kessel12:34
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn16:03
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Beauchemin – Schenn2:18
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 2–0
- Beauchemin – Komisarek12:34
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).